Northern lights in South Dakota tonight
The aurora forecast for South Dakota, hour by hour: the Kp index NOAA expects, how dark it gets, the Moon and the clouds, for the north of the state (Aberdeen) where the odds are best.
Unlikely Thursday, November 5
The highest Kp expected after dark tonight is 2.33. Aberdeen (north South Dakota) needs about Kp 5 to see the aurora low on the northern horizon, and the sky cover forecast after dark averages 68%. The Moon is 9% lit.
| Time | Sky | Kp | Clouds | Moon | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 PM | Twilight | 2.33 | 64% | down | Not dark yet |
| 7 PM | Dark | 2.33 | 67% | down | Unlikely |
| 8 PM | Dark | 2.33 | 71% | down | Unlikely |
| 9 PM | Dark | 2.00 | 70% | down | Unlikely |
| 10 PM | Dark | 2.00 | 72% | down | Unlikely |
| 11 PM | Dark | 2.00 | 71% | down | Unlikely |
| 12 AM | Dark | 2.00 | 70% | down | Unlikely |
| 1 AM | Dark | 2.00 | 70% | down | Unlikely |
| 2 AM | Dark | 2.00 | 71% | down | Unlikely |
| 3 AM | Dark | 2.33 | 69% | down | Unlikely |
| 4 AM | Dark | 2.33 | 67% | down | Unlikely |
| 5 AM | Dark | 2.33 | 62% | 3° | Unlikely |
| 6 AM | Dark | 2.33 | 61% | 12° | Unlikely |
Forecast from NOAA SWPC (Kp, 3-hour blocks) and the National Weather Service (sky cover), checked when this page was built. The page updates itself when it can reach our data feed.
What Kp you need in South Dakota
The farther north (in magnetic terms) you stand, the lower the Kp you need. From Aberdeen, an aurora usually shows low on the northern horizon once Kp reaches about 5; overhead displays need about two steps more. A phone camera in night mode often records it one step earlier than the eye. How we estimate this: our method.
How often the aurora reaches South Dakota
Our own count from the official Kp archive: on how many nights each year the Kp index reached about 5 or more while it was dark at Aberdeen. Clouds are not counted, so the real number of nights with a visible aurora is lower. Over the last 10 years the average was 13.3 nights a year; in 2025 it was 33.
Data: Kp index since 1932, GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences (Matzka et al., 2021), CC BY 4.0. Darkness computed by us for each 3-hour interval (Sun 12° or more below the horizon).
The next 27 days
NOAA's 27-day outlook has 4 days with a largest Kp close to or above what Aberdeen needs: Nov 17 (Kp 5), Nov 18 (Kp 5), Nov 27 (Kp 5), Nov 28 (Kp 5). The outlook is rough: it repeats the Sun's 27-day rotation and misses sudden storms.
| Day (UTC) | Largest Kp | At Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|
| Thu, Nov 5 | 3 | Unlikely |
| Fri, Nov 6 | 3 | Unlikely |
| Sat, Nov 7 | 3 | Unlikely |
| Sun, Nov 8 | 2 | Unlikely |
| Mon, Nov 9 | 4 | Low chance |
| Tue, Nov 10 | 3 | Unlikely |
| Wed, Nov 11 | 3 | Unlikely |
| Thu, Nov 12 | 3 | Unlikely |
| Fri, Nov 13 | 2 | Unlikely |
| Sat, Nov 14 | 2 | Unlikely |
First 10 days shown. Full table: 27-day aurora forecast.
Where to watch in South Dakota
South Dakota has wide prairie skies and solid aurora odds in the north, around Aberdeen and the James River valley. The Missouri River lakes in the center of the state are dark and open. Sioux Falls and Rapid City need stronger storms, though dark country starts close to both.
Open prairie in the north gives full views. In the Badlands or Black Hills, pick a high spot with the north clear.
- Sand Lake National Wildlife Refuge: wetland refuge north of Aberdeen near Columbia
- Badlands National Park: national park east of Rapid City
- Custer State Park: Black Hills state park south of Rapid City
Nearby states
Questions people ask
Can you see the northern lights in South Dakota?
Yes, on active nights. From Aberdeen it takes about Kp 5, which happened on about 13.3 nights a year over the last 10 years (before clouds).
What time is best?
Usually between 10 pm and 2 am local time, when the sky is fully dark and your location faces the night side of the auroral oval. Storms can bring it earlier or later.
Which way should I look?
North, toward a low, open horizon away from city lights. In strong storms the aurora can climb higher or appear overhead.
Is this an official forecast?
No. It is our estimate built from NOAA's Kp forecast, the National Weather Service sky cover forecast and the Sun and Moon positions. It is not a promise.
Sources: Kp forecast and 27-day outlook: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (public domain). Sky cover: National Weather Service (public domain). Kp archive: GFZ, CC BY 4.0. Coordinates: U.S. Census Bureau Gazetteer. Magnetic latitude: our calculation from the IGRF-14 model of Earth's magnetic field. Sun and Moon: Astronomy Engine. Unofficial estimates, not a guarantee.
Page checked: November 5, 2026.