Northern lights in Michigan tonight
The aurora forecast for Michigan, hour by hour: the Kp index NOAA expects, how dark it gets, the Moon and the clouds, for the north of the state (Marquette) where the odds are best.
Unlikely Sunday, October 25
The highest Kp expected after dark tonight is 3. Marquette (north Michigan) needs about Kp 4 to see the aurora low on the northern horizon, and the sky cover forecast after dark averages 58%. The Moon is 100% lit.
| Time | Sky | Kp | Clouds | Moon | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 PM | Dark | 3.00 | 54% | 18° | Unlikely |
| 9 PM | Dark | 3.00 | 57% | 28° | Unlikely |
| 10 PM | Dark | 3.00 | 43% | 38° | Unlikely |
| 11 PM | Dark | 2.00 | 23% | 47° | Unlikely |
| 12 AM | Dark | 2.00 | 35% | 55° | Unlikely |
| 1 AM | Dark | 2.00 | 42% | 59° | Unlikely |
| 2 AM | Dark | 2.00 | 61% | 59° | Unlikely |
| 3 AM | Dark | 2.00 | 71% | 55° | Unlikely |
| 4 AM | Dark | 2.00 | 77% | 48° | Clouds in the way |
| 5 AM | Dark | 2.00 | 77% | 39° | Clouds in the way |
| 6 AM | Dark | 2.00 | 78% | 29° | Clouds in the way |
| 7 AM | Dark | 2.00 | 81% | 19° | Clouds in the way |
Forecast from NOAA SWPC (Kp, 3-hour blocks) and the National Weather Service (sky cover), checked when this page was built. The page updates itself when it can reach our data feed.
What Kp you need in Michigan
The farther north (in magnetic terms) you stand, the lower the Kp you need. From Marquette, an aurora usually shows low on the northern horizon once Kp reaches about 4; overhead displays need about two steps more. A phone camera in night mode often records it one step earlier than the eye. How we estimate this: our method.
How often the aurora reaches Michigan
Our own count from the official Kp archive: on how many nights each year the Kp index reached about 4 or more while it was dark at Marquette. Clouds are not counted, so the real number of nights with a visible aurora is lower. Over the last 10 years the average was 23 nights a year; in 2025 it was 49.
Data: Kp index since 1932, GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences (Matzka et al., 2021), CC BY 4.0. Darkness computed by us for each 3-hour interval (Sun 12° or more below the horizon).
The next 27 days
NOAA's 27-day outlook has 3 days with a largest Kp close to or above what Marquette needs: Oct 31 (Kp 5), Nov 1 (Kp 5), Nov 9 (Kp 4). The outlook is rough: it repeats the Sun's 27-day rotation and misses sudden storms.
| Day (UTC) | Largest Kp | At Marquette |
|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 25 | 3 | Unlikely |
| Mon, Oct 26 | 2 | Unlikely |
| Tue, Oct 27 | 2 | Unlikely |
| Wed, Oct 28 | 2 | Unlikely |
| Thu, Oct 29 | 2 | Unlikely |
| Fri, Oct 30 | 2 | Unlikely |
| Sat, Oct 31 | 5 | Good chance |
| Sun, Nov 1 | 5 | Good chance |
| Mon, Nov 2 | 3 | Unlikely |
| Tue, Nov 3 | 2 | Unlikely |
First 10 days shown. Full table: 27-day aurora forecast.
Where to watch in Michigan
Michigan is one of the top aurora states east of the Rockies. The Upper Peninsula, with long Lake Superior shorelines facing north, sees displays during moderate storms, and the tip of the Lower Peninsula is close behind. Lake-effect clouds are common from late fall into winter, so clear breaks are worth chasing.
North-facing lakeshores on Lake Superior and Lake Huron give open, dark horizons. Inland, find a field or lake with no tree line to the north.
- Headlands International Dark Sky Park: county park on Lake Michigan just west of Mackinaw City
- Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore: national lakeshore on Lake Superior between Munising and Grand Marais
- Whitefish Point: point on Lake Superior north of Paradise, in the eastern Upper Peninsula
- Port Crescent State Park: Lake Huron shoreline state park near Port Austin, at the tip of the Thumb
Cities in Michigan
Nearby states
Questions people ask
Can you see the northern lights in Michigan?
Yes, on active nights. From Marquette it takes about Kp 4, which happened on about 23 nights a year over the last 10 years (before clouds).
What time is best?
Usually between 10 pm and 2 am local time, when the sky is fully dark and your location faces the night side of the auroral oval. Storms can bring it earlier or later.
Which way should I look?
North, toward a low, open horizon away from city lights. In strong storms the aurora can climb higher or appear overhead.
Is this an official forecast?
No. It is our estimate built from NOAA's Kp forecast, the National Weather Service sky cover forecast and the Sun and Moon positions. It is not a promise.
Sources: Kp forecast and 27-day outlook: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (public domain). Sky cover: National Weather Service (public domain). Kp archive: GFZ, CC BY 4.0. Coordinates: U.S. Census Bureau Gazetteer. Sun and Moon: Astronomy Engine. Unofficial estimates, not a guarantee.
Page checked: October 25, 2026.