Northern lights in North Dakota tonight
The aurora forecast for North Dakota, hour by hour: the Kp index NOAA expects, how dark it gets, the Moon and the clouds, for the north of the state (Minot) where the odds are best.
Possible Wednesday, November 4
The highest Kp expected after dark tonight is 3.67. Minot (north North Dakota) needs about Kp 4 to see the aurora low on the northern horizon, and the sky cover forecast after dark averages 31%. The Moon is 16% lit.
| Time | Sky | Kp | Clouds | Moon | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 PM | Dark | 2.67 | 15% | down | Low chance |
| 8 PM | Dark | 2.67 | 15% | down | Low chance |
| 9 PM | Dark | 3.00 | 15% | down | Low chance |
| 10 PM | Dark | 3.00 | 13% | down | Low chance |
| 11 PM | Dark | 3.00 | 16% | down | Low chance |
| 12 AM | Dark | 3.67 | 31% | down | Possible |
| 1 AM | Dark | 3.67 | 41% | down | Possible |
| 2 AM | Dark | 3.67 | 38% | down | Possible |
| 3 AM | Dark | 2.67 | 41% | down | Low chance |
| 4 AM | Dark | 2.67 | 42% | 3° | Low chance |
| 5 AM | Dark | 2.67 | 46% | 12° | Low chance |
| 6 AM | Dark | 2.67 | 56% | 21° | Low chance |
Forecast from NOAA SWPC (Kp, 3-hour blocks) and the National Weather Service (sky cover), checked when this page was built. The page updates itself when it can reach our data feed.
What Kp you need in North Dakota
The farther north (in magnetic terms) you stand, the lower the Kp you need. From Minot, an aurora usually shows low on the northern horizon once Kp reaches about 4; overhead displays need about two steps more. A phone camera in night mode often records it one step earlier than the eye. How we estimate this: our method.
How often the aurora reaches North Dakota
Our own count from the official Kp archive: on how many nights each year the Kp index reached about 4 or more while it was dark at Minot. Clouds are not counted, so the real number of nights with a visible aurora is lower. Over the last 10 years the average was 46.1 nights a year; in 2025 it was 91.
Data: Kp index since 1932, GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences (Matzka et al., 2021), CC BY 4.0. Darkness computed by us for each 3-hour interval (Sun 12° or more below the horizon).
The next 27 days
NOAA's 27-day outlook has 5 days with a largest Kp close to or above what Minot needs: Nov 9 (Kp 4), Nov 17 (Kp 5), Nov 18 (Kp 5), Nov 27 (Kp 5), Nov 28 (Kp 5). The outlook is rough: it repeats the Sun's 27-day rotation and misses sudden storms.
| Day (UTC) | Largest Kp | At Minot |
|---|---|---|
| Wed, Nov 4 | 2 | Unlikely |
| Thu, Nov 5 | 3 | Low chance |
| Fri, Nov 6 | 3 | Low chance |
| Sat, Nov 7 | 3 | Low chance |
| Sun, Nov 8 | 2 | Unlikely |
| Mon, Nov 9 | 4 | Possible |
| Tue, Nov 10 | 3 | Low chance |
| Wed, Nov 11 | 3 | Low chance |
| Thu, Nov 12 | 3 | Low chance |
| Fri, Nov 13 | 2 | Unlikely |
First 10 days shown. Full table: 27-day aurora forecast.
Where to watch in North Dakota
North Dakota is one of the best states for the aurora. Its flat prairie, few towns and northern latitude mean displays show during modest storms, especially around Minot and near the Canadian border. Winter brings long nights but also bitter cold and blowing snow.
Open prairie gives a full northern horizon almost anywhere. The Turtle Mountains add some tree cover, so use lake shores there.
- Lake Metigoshe State Park: lake state park in the Turtle Mountains near Bottineau
- J. Clark Salyer National Wildlife Refuge: wetland refuge along the Souris River, north central North Dakota
- Theodore Roosevelt National Park: badlands national park in western North Dakota
Nearby states
Questions people ask
Can you see the northern lights in North Dakota?
Yes, on active nights. From Minot it takes about Kp 4, which happened on about 46.1 nights a year over the last 10 years (before clouds).
What time is best?
Usually between 10 pm and 2 am local time, when the sky is fully dark and your location faces the night side of the auroral oval. Storms can bring it earlier or later.
Which way should I look?
North, toward a low, open horizon away from city lights. In strong storms the aurora can climb higher or appear overhead.
Is this an official forecast?
No. It is our estimate built from NOAA's Kp forecast, the National Weather Service sky cover forecast and the Sun and Moon positions. It is not a promise.
Sources: Kp forecast and 27-day outlook: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (public domain). Sky cover: National Weather Service (public domain). Kp archive: GFZ, CC BY 4.0. Coordinates: U.S. Census Bureau Gazetteer. Magnetic latitude: our calculation from the IGRF-14 model of Earth's magnetic field. Sun and Moon: Astronomy Engine. Unofficial estimates, not a guarantee.
Page checked: November 4, 2026.