Northern lights in Madison tonight
The aurora forecast for Madison, Wisconsin, hour by hour: the Kp index NOAA expects, darkness, the Moon and the cloud forecast for the city.
Unlikely Thursday, November 5
The highest Kp expected after dark tonight is 2.33. Madison needs about Kp 6 to see the aurora low on the northern horizon, and the sky cover forecast after dark averages 64%. The Moon is 9% lit.
| Time | Sky | Kp | Clouds | Moon | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 PM | Dark | 2.33 | 91% | down | Clouds in the way |
| 7 PM | Dark | 2.33 | 87% | down | Clouds in the way |
| 8 PM | Dark | 2.33 | 87% | down | Clouds in the way |
| 9 PM | Dark | 2.00 | 84% | down | Clouds in the way |
| 10 PM | Dark | 2.00 | 76% | down | Clouds in the way |
| 11 PM | Dark | 2.00 | 75% | down | Clouds in the way |
| 12 AM | Dark | 2.00 | 54% | down | Unlikely |
| 1 AM | Dark | 2.00 | 55% | down | Unlikely |
| 2 AM | Dark | 2.00 | 45% | down | Unlikely |
| 3 AM | Dark | 2.33 | 43% | down | Unlikely |
| 4 AM | Dark | 2.33 | 35% | down | Unlikely |
| 5 AM | Dark | 2.33 | 30% | 10° | Unlikely |
| 6 AM | Twilight | 2.33 | 27% | 19° | Not dark yet |
Forecast from NOAA SWPC (Kp, 3-hour blocks) and the National Weather Service (sky cover), checked when this page was built. The page updates itself when it can reach our data feed.
What Kp you need in Madison
The farther north (in magnetic terms) you stand, the lower the Kp you need. From Madison, an aurora usually shows low on the northern horizon once Kp reaches about 6; overhead displays need about two steps more. A phone camera in night mode often records it one step earlier than the eye. How we estimate this: our method.
How often the aurora reaches Madison
Our own count from the official Kp archive: on how many nights each year the Kp index reached about 6 or more while it was dark at Madison. Clouds are not counted, so the real number of nights with a visible aurora is lower. Over the last 10 years the average was 4.2 nights a year; in 2025 it was 11.
Data: Kp index since 1932, GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences (Matzka et al., 2021), CC BY 4.0. Darkness computed by us for each 3-hour interval (Sun 12° or more below the horizon).
The next 27 days
NOAA's 27-day outlook has no day with a largest Kp near the 6 that Madison needs. The outlook repeats the Sun's 27-day rotation and cannot see sudden storms, so check the 3-day forecast too.
| Day (UTC) | Largest Kp | At Madison |
|---|---|---|
| Thu, Nov 5 | 3 | Unlikely |
| Fri, Nov 6 | 3 | Unlikely |
| Sat, Nov 7 | 3 | Unlikely |
| Sun, Nov 8 | 2 | Unlikely |
| Mon, Nov 9 | 4 | Unlikely |
| Tue, Nov 10 | 3 | Unlikely |
| Wed, Nov 11 | 3 | Unlikely |
| Thu, Nov 12 | 3 | Unlikely |
| Fri, Nov 13 | 2 | Unlikely |
| Sat, Nov 14 | 2 | Unlikely |
First 10 days shown. Full table: 27-day aurora forecast.
Where to watch in Madison
Madison is small enough that dark country is close, and it sees the aurora during strong storms. The Baraboo Hills and the Wisconsin Dells area to the northwest are the usual escape. Winter brings long nights and frequent clear, cold air behind fronts.
Find a lake or open field to the north and keep the city lights behind you.
- Devil's Lake State Park: bluff and lake state park near Baraboo, about 40 miles northwest
- Mirror Lake State Park: lake state park near Lake Delton, about 50 miles northwest
For the darkest skies in the state, see northern lights in Wisconsin.
Nearby cities
Questions people ask
Can you see the northern lights in Madison, WI?
Yes, on active nights. From Madison it takes about Kp 6, which happened on about 4.2 nights a year over the last 10 years (before clouds).
What time is best?
Usually between 10 pm and 2 am local time, when the sky is fully dark and your location faces the night side of the auroral oval. Storms can bring it earlier or later.
Which way should I look?
North, toward a low, open horizon away from city lights. In strong storms the aurora can climb higher or appear overhead.
Is this an official forecast?
No. It is our estimate built from NOAA's Kp forecast, the National Weather Service sky cover forecast and the Sun and Moon positions. It is not a promise.
Sources: Kp forecast and 27-day outlook: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (public domain). Sky cover: National Weather Service (public domain). Kp archive: GFZ, CC BY 4.0. Coordinates: U.S. Census Bureau Gazetteer. Magnetic latitude: our calculation from the IGRF-14 model of Earth's magnetic field. Sun and Moon: Astronomy Engine. Unofficial estimates, not a guarantee.
Page checked: November 5, 2026.