Northern lights in Duluth tonight
The aurora forecast for Duluth, Minnesota, hour by hour: the Kp index NOAA expects, darkness, the Moon and the cloud forecast for the city.
Clouds in the way Wednesday, November 4
The highest Kp expected after dark tonight is 3.67. Duluth needs about Kp 4 to see the aurora low on the northern horizon, and the sky cover forecast after dark averages 93%. The Moon is 16% lit.
| Time | Sky | Kp | Clouds | Moon | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 PM | Dark | 2.67 | 96% | down | Clouds in the way |
| 7 PM | Dark | 2.67 | 96% | down | Clouds in the way |
| 8 PM | Dark | 2.67 | 96% | down | Clouds in the way |
| 9 PM | Dark | 3.00 | 96% | down | Clouds in the way |
| 10 PM | Dark | 3.00 | 95% | down | Clouds in the way |
| 11 PM | Dark | 3.00 | 95% | down | Clouds in the way |
| 12 AM | Dark | 3.67 | 94% | down | Clouds in the way |
| 1 AM | Dark | 3.67 | 93% | down | Clouds in the way |
| 2 AM | Dark | 3.67 | 92% | down | Clouds in the way |
| 3 AM | Dark | 2.67 | 91% | down | Clouds in the way |
| 4 AM | Dark | 2.67 | 88% | 9° | Clouds in the way |
| 5 AM | Dark | 2.67 | 85% | 18° | Clouds in the way |
| 6 AM | Twilight | 2.67 | 82% | 27° | Not dark yet |
Forecast from NOAA SWPC (Kp, 3-hour blocks) and the National Weather Service (sky cover), checked when this page was built. The page updates itself when it can reach our data feed.
What Kp you need in Duluth
The farther north (in magnetic terms) you stand, the lower the Kp you need. From Duluth, an aurora usually shows low on the northern horizon once Kp reaches about 4; overhead displays need about two steps more. A phone camera in night mode often records it one step earlier than the eye. How we estimate this: our method.
How often the aurora reaches Duluth
Our own count from the official Kp archive: on how many nights each year the Kp index reached about 4 or more while it was dark at Duluth. Clouds are not counted, so the real number of nights with a visible aurora is lower. Over the last 10 years the average was 32 nights a year; in 2025 it was 69.
Data: Kp index since 1932, GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences (Matzka et al., 2021), CC BY 4.0. Darkness computed by us for each 3-hour interval (Sun 12° or more below the horizon).
The next 27 days
NOAA's 27-day outlook has 5 days with a largest Kp close to or above what Duluth needs: Nov 9 (Kp 4), Nov 17 (Kp 5), Nov 18 (Kp 5), Nov 27 (Kp 5), Nov 28 (Kp 5). The outlook is rough: it repeats the Sun's 27-day rotation and misses sudden storms.
| Day (UTC) | Largest Kp | At Duluth |
|---|---|---|
| Wed, Nov 4 | 2 | Unlikely |
| Thu, Nov 5 | 3 | Low chance |
| Fri, Nov 6 | 3 | Low chance |
| Sat, Nov 7 | 3 | Low chance |
| Sun, Nov 8 | 2 | Unlikely |
| Mon, Nov 9 | 4 | Possible |
| Tue, Nov 10 | 3 | Low chance |
| Wed, Nov 11 | 3 | Low chance |
| Thu, Nov 12 | 3 | Low chance |
| Fri, Nov 13 | 2 | Unlikely |
First 10 days shown. Full table: 27-day aurora forecast.
Where to watch in Duluth
Duluth sees the aurora often for a city, but its stretch of Lake Superior faces southeast, not north. That means the lakefront is less useful than it looks. Drive inland or up the North Shore, where forest clearings and lakes give darker views north.
Look north from inland clearings and small lakes, or north up the shoreline.
- Gooseberry Falls State Park: North Shore state park about 40 miles northeast
- Superior National Forest: huge national forest north of the North Shore
For the darkest skies in the state, see northern lights in Minnesota.
Nearby cities
Questions people ask
Can you see the northern lights in Duluth, MN?
Yes, on active nights. From Duluth it takes about Kp 4, which happened on about 32 nights a year over the last 10 years (before clouds).
What time is best?
Usually between 10 pm and 2 am local time, when the sky is fully dark and your location faces the night side of the auroral oval. Storms can bring it earlier or later.
Which way should I look?
North, toward a low, open horizon away from city lights. In strong storms the aurora can climb higher or appear overhead.
Is this an official forecast?
No. It is our estimate built from NOAA's Kp forecast, the National Weather Service sky cover forecast and the Sun and Moon positions. It is not a promise.
Sources: Kp forecast and 27-day outlook: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (public domain). Sky cover: National Weather Service (public domain). Kp archive: GFZ, CC BY 4.0. Coordinates: U.S. Census Bureau Gazetteer. Magnetic latitude: our calculation from the IGRF-14 model of Earth's magnetic field. Sun and Moon: Astronomy Engine. Unofficial estimates, not a guarantee.
Page checked: November 4, 2026.